Week 11 Real Picks

So last week I went 8-6 against the spread, not bad but always striving for better. Couple items from last week, we found out that the beast in the AFC are the Houston Texans and they could stand up to what the NFC best have to offer. It was a gritty performance by a team that seems to be head and shoulders over everyone in the AFC. We are going to try something different with the picks this week. In the less is more category I am going to give less analysis on certain games and highlight what I consider the locks and the better games.

Miami @ Buffalo

The Bills are favored 2.5

Prediction, the Bills should win with better weapons and at home. The Dolphins to me might be the better team overall.

Bills 26 Dolphins 21

Philadelphia @ Washington

The Redskins are favored 3.5

Prediction, the Eagles might play even better with Nick Foles at QB because they will have to be balanced on offense. RG3 is the better quarterback and at home, but will the Redskins cover? Remember division games are always hard. Nick Foles makes a rookie mistake and the Redskins win and cover.

Redskins 24 Eagles 17

Green Bay @ Detroit

The Packers are favored by 3.5

Prediction, the Packers play better and a more disciplined brand of football, period! This might be the most entertaining game as far as scoring is concerned. Packers cover. Packers 35 Lions 31

Arizona @ Atlanta

The Falcons are favored by 10

Prediction, do the Falcons bounce back in a big way? Or is it a sleep walk with superior talent and do enough to win? The Falcons this year have played down to their opponent level. I think the Cardinals have enough defense to not lose by double digits.

Falcons 27 Cardinals 21

Tampa Bay @ Carolina

The Bucs are favored by 1.5

This is one of the real locks of the week. Tampa Bay has been playing great football for the last 5 weeks. Josh Freeman has been every bit as clutch as anyone in the NFL.  It is real simple, Cam Newton does not have the horses to be successful. He needs to mature, no doubt, but more talent around Newton would make all the difference in the world.

Prediction, Tampa is just better in every way. I can’t even see this game being that close.

Bucs 28 Panthers 17

 

Cleveland @ Dallas

The Cowboys are favored by 8

Prediction, because of the fact that the Cowboys have to prepare for 2 games and not one, they will win this game, but maybe have a harder struggle than necessary. The Browns might not be good but have shown fight in their games.

Cowboys 24 Browns 17

 

New   York Jets @ St. Louis

The Rams are favored by 3.5

Prediction, with wide receiver Danny Amendola back, Sam Bradford has his reliable weapon back and the New York Jets are coming into town, a perfect scenario for a team that tied the 49ers last week. The Jets are not the 49ers.

Rams 23 Jets 16

Jacksonville @ Houston

The Texans are favored by 15.5

Prediction, I smell blowout! The Texans should just dominate the Jaguars. In no scenario can you see Jacksonville staying close to Houston.

Texans 38 Jaguars 10

Cincinnati @ Kansas City

The Bengals are favored by 3.5

Prediction, even though the Bengals have not played well this year I still believe they have enough to cover.

Bengals 23 Chiefs 14

New Orleans @ Oakland

The Saints are favored by 5

Prediction, Drew Brees goes into the “black hole” and puts on an aerial attack that the Raiders can keep up with.

Saints 34 Raiders 23

San Diego @ Denver

The Broncos are favored by 7.5

Prediction, I can’t see that in this being San Diego’s last stand, that they let the Broncos cover. A desperate team and a divisional opponent as well, Manning and Rivers put up big numbers but the Broncos survive!

Broncos 37 Chargers 33

Indianapolis @ New England

The Patriots are favored by 9

Lets face it! You  probably weren’t thinking that  Indianapolis were going to be good. I mean 2-14 last year and now to be 6-3 with a rookie quarterback, new regime, and a brand new cast of characters for the most part. Andrew Luck has been every bit as good as advertised as the number one selection in last spring’s NFL draft. Luck has looked the part of a franchise quarterback and he has done it in various ways. Last week it was his legs against Jacksonville.

Well for the Pats it is like a division game. The Colts, that have not been in the AFC East since 2001, will be facing the Patriots for the 10th straight year. The Patriots are back in their familiar position of 1st in the AFC east, after struggling earlier. Still, defensively the Patriots have a ways to go to be mentioned with the elite of the AFC. As long as Brady is pulling the trigger the Patriots will always be in the hunt.

Prediction, the Patriots will be surprised by the poise of Luck and be in a battle all game long. Patriots will not cover.

Patriots 34 Colts 28

Baltimore @ Pittsburgh

The Ravens are favored by 3.5

I would take a guess that NBC wants to flex out of this and into the Patriots/Colts game.

Prediction, before the Reothlisberger injury this would have been harder to predict. Ravens 23 Steelers 16

Chicago @ San Francisco

The 49ers are favored by 5.5 

Prediction, No Jay Cutler no chance for the Bears to go to the west coast and come away with the win in San Francisco. With Cutler’s condition still cloudy, there is very little doubt that he will sit out. The way the 49ers play defense it might be better for Cutler anyway. Jason Campbell will get a full week of practice with the 1st team but I believe that will have very little change in the outcome.

The 49ers are coming off a tie with the Rams and should be pissed and needing a win to stay in the race for the home field advantage throughout the playoffs. The defense should stack the line and dare Jason Campbell to beat them.

49ers 24 Bears 13

What is the biggest surprise this NFL season?

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